PPACTE

Price is the single most important intervention in tobacco control (TC). To protect the health of its citizens the EU now has a major role in regulating tobacco fiscal policy (FP) through a number of EU directives. The aims of these directives initially were to ensure the proper functioning of the internal market. The directives aided harmonization in EU Member States (MS) but now with EU enlargement price differentials have increased problems for the market and health protection. Price elasticity of tobacco is estimated using econometric analysis of demand but is limited in MS by availability of relevant data. The interaction of FP with other TC policies is poorly defined.

The effects of price on smuggling and the tobacco industry response to price changes are complex. Gradually tools are evolving to look at some of these problems. The World Bank has produced a toolkit for economic analysis of tobacco demand with clear guidance on methodology. SimSmoke has allowed the analysis of various TC components to be investigated. This project allows us to perform an econometric analysis at EU level with routinely collected aggregated time series data examining differences in EU MS and the influence of EU border countries. A new cross sectional survey will provide standardized data for EU MS We will examine the effect of the rate of price changes using historical data comparing steep rapid changes e.g. in France with gradual changes in e.g. UK and Ireland.

Using SimSmoke we will examine the effects of the interaction of price with: Smoking Cessation Services, Smuggling in high, (Finland, Ireland, UK) and low, (Baltic, Romania) price countries, Smoke free laws (Ireland, Scotland and Italy), Advertising and warnings (Belgium, UK) and predict the effects on other MS. Outputs: Recommendations for policymakers at EU and MS levels with SimSmoke models and a Fiscal Policy Handbook for MS to strengthen tobacco control policies and lead to an equitable EU tobacco market